The country’s largest economic hub has been identified as one of the 10 cities in the world most likely to be severely affected by climate change, and the need to deploy an adaptation plan is urgent, officials have said.

Ayumi Konishi, the Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s country director for Viet Nam, said the effects of climate change could cause a 7.3 per cent drop in the city’s GDP in the near future.

Konishi spoke at a workshop yesterday in HCM City on the impact of climate change and the need for the city to move from study to action. The municipal People’s Committee and ADB organised the workshop.

The HCM City Adaptation to Climate Change study, which is being carried out with financing from the ADB and the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) in partnership with the city People’s Committee, is an initial step in a planned response to the challenges in adapting to climate change.

"The study explores climate threats and their impact on areas, communities and sectors in the city and makes recommendations for adaptation options," Jeremy Carew-Reid, director of the ICEM, said.

The report identifies a number of key principles to guide climate change adaptation in HCM City, including building on experiences in responding to natural disasters, rehabilitating and maintaining flexibility and resilience in city design, and decentralising adaptation capacity.

It calls for promoting autonomous responses among communities, and maintaining and enhancing natural systems and biodiversity.

The study points out that rivers and canals should be free-flowing and clean, the poor should not be worse off, and that strategic infrastructure should be located away from vulnerable areas.

Sensitive industrial and commercial operations should be located away from vulnerable areas, and an adaptation plan carried out at every level.

The key recommendation arising from the study is the development of a HCM City Climate Change Adaptation plan to be prepared by the People’s Committee in accordance with the National Target Plan.

"The People’s Committee should take a proactive leadership role in driving climate change adaptation in the city," Putu Kamayana, the ADB’s deputy country director for Viet Nam, said.

In addition to overseeing the preparation of the plan, the committee should be responsible for providing special budgetary allocations over a five-year period to support key sectors to conduct audits of existing facilities and to revise their development strategies and plans.

Budget allocations should also be used to pilot innovative adaptation measures, including climate proofing the city landscape through measures of the kind set out in the report.

The People’s Committee should also shift its existing flood and storm control committee into a climate change adaptation and mitigation committee, with authority and resources to enforce adaptation plans, the report recommends.

A climate change adaptation and mitigation fund is necessary to receive regular replenishment from Government, international contributions and adaptation plan deposits from developers.

The city should enter into regional collaborative agreements on climate change adaptation with neighbouring provinces.

"Although climate change is moving faster than anticipated, there is still time to adapt and develop appropriate solutions," said Tran Thuc, general director of the Viet Nam Meteohydrology and Environment Institute.

Future impact

Between 1997 and 2007, nearly all of the city’s districts were affected by natural disasters.

The total value of property damage from natural disasters over the last 10 years is estimated at US$12.6 million. Losses in the future are expected to increase.

About 77 per cent of the remaining open-space areas will be affected by flooding in 2050.

The expected changes in the tidal range will be caused by a sea level rise of 26cm by 2050.

Changes in the tidal situation as a result of a sea level rise will result in areas of the city becoming permanently inundated, according to the report.

An extreme storm now affects around 1.7 million people or 26 per cent of the city’s population.

In 2050, approximately 62 per cent of the population or about 13 million people are expected to be affected by extreme events.

Around 39 per cent of poor households are expected to be affected by flooding in 2050 if the flood control system is in place, and 57 per cent if it is not.

In rural areas, vulnerability stems from the potential impact on household productive assets, as well as greater susceptibility of rural areas to flooding.

The poor are less resilient to external shocks as they possess few assets or savings, and are likely to be more adversely affected by flooding.

Poorer groups engaged in lower value-added production sensitive to climate change, such as agriculture, are also likely to be more vulnerable.

(Source: VNS)