Vietnam economy in 2010 has a lot of positive factors and is thriving but faces external and internal challenges to it.

This is a common assessment of economists at the conference “Vietnam economy 2010: recognizing investment opportunity and business” held by (is this the name of the paper?) Investment newspaper in cooperation with the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast under the Ministry of Planning and Investment on January 14, 2010 in Hanoi.

Dr Le Dinh An, director of the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast, provided two positive forecasts for the Vietnamese economy in 2010.

The first model is to pay more attention to quality of growth. It means that the growth target is more reasonable in order to focus on shifting the economic structure and restructuring enterprises and their production.

According to this model, the growth rate of the economy forecasted is about 6-6.5% while tight price control measures are implemented, CPI will be kept at single digital and budget deficit will be about 6.2% of GDP.

The second model pursues a high growth target of about 7%. In order to achieve this rate, there will be an increase in investment and spending by the government.

Increasing investment and spending of the government will increase the budget deficit with special attention paid to inflation and the proposal of tight control measures when pursuing a high growth rate and low investment effectiveness. With the two above measures, Vietnam will need to make the utmost efforts to achieve them.

Dr Le Dinh An forecasted that export revenue of 2010 is 66.4-67.8 billion USD, import revenue is 77.5-80 billion USD, trade deficit is over 12 billion USD. Concentrating on solving consequences from the 2009 global economic crisis will create conditions to put the economy back into orbit to develop sustainably, creating an impetus for following years.

In 2010, almost all sectors, especially export sectors showed satisfactory signs that Vietnam and the world economy are recovering.

However, this process is still weak, therefore, benefits and revenue in 2010 of sectors are forecasted to be improved but difficult to develop suddenly,” Mr Ha Huy Tuan, deputy chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said.

“Loosening fiscal and monetary policy is affecting the macroscopic balance. The total payment measures and increasing outstanding credit balances puts pressure on the exchange rate, market interest rates and the effect will last through 2010 due slowing the impact of the monetary policy,” Mr Vu Viet Ngoan, deputy chairman of National Assembly’s Economic Commission, warned.

According to Mr Ngoan, mobilized capital increasing the rate of credit organizations (increasing 28.7%) is lower than the growth rate of credit outstanding balance (37.7%), causing difficulty for credit organizations in capital balance.

Vietnam’s export will also face new trade barriers due to protection from import markets and an increased demand that is not entirely stable or sustainable.

(Source: BTA)